The first wave of storms is still expected to push southeast across portions of southern Indiana and central Kentucky this morning. Severe weather is less likely with the morning wave, but stronger storms could produce small hail and gusty winds.
Then, an extended lull is expected with mainly dry and hot conditions this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to fire across southern Indiana and western Kentucky early this evening and move southeast across the region. All severe hazards will be possible with this second wave. Damaging winds will be the most widespread threat, but very large hail and tornadoes (possibly significant) will also be possible.
While confidence in the fine details of exactly how storms will initiate this afternoon is still only medium, confidence is medium-high that storms will indeed fire, and if they do form they will quickly become dangerous.
The most likely time frame for severe weather is 5 PM – 1 AM EDT tonight.