New Year’s Day Weather Outlook

John Bobel

January 1, 2022

2022 starts with heavy rain and a severe weather threat.

Rain was widespread across much of central Kentucky during the pre-dawn hours, with embedded thunderstorms crossing southern Kentucky. Rain and thunderstorms will continue through the morning hours, with the heaviest rains expected south of the Ohio River and north of the Cumberland Parkway. Additional amounts of 1-3″ will be possible. In addition to general rainfall amounts, rainfall rates may be locally intense and lead to flash flooding. General river flooding may begin to develop as early as this evening. The Licking, Rolling Fork, and lower Green river basins are the most at risk, in addition to Peaks Mill on Elkhorn Creek.  See https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=LMK .

Confidence is lower in the chance of severe weather, but storms moving across south-central Kentucky this morning may produce isolated instances of strong wind gusts, large hail, and possibly a tornado or two. This afternoon new storms may develop over southeastern portions of central Kentucky, especially south of a line from Mammoth Cave to Stanford. These storms would have a greater chance of possibly producing severe weather, including tornadoes.

This evening a broad band of showers and embedded thunderstorms will push across central Kentucky as a cold front moves through. Heavy rain will be the main threat from this activity.

Outside of thunderstorms:

Wind gusts of 30-40 mph can be expected this afternoon in southern Kentucky away from storms, with the strongest gusts expected in the Dale Hollow and Lake Cumberland regions.

Stay tuned to the latest information as it becomes available. This is a very complex system leading to somewhat lower than normal confidence in how it will all play out.