From NWS Louisville:
3pm, Wednesday, March 24
There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) across most of the Commonwealth on Thursday. The main threat will be damaging winds, both with afternoon storms and an evening squall line. The squall line could also produce brief spin-ups in western or central Kentucky. The overall severe risk in central Kentucky and southern Indiana will run from roughly 3 PM – Midnight Eastern Time. Gusty winds out of the SW are expected after midnight, especially in southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. Gusts near 35 mph are likely.
The latest forecasts call for the possibility of severe weather across southern Indiana and central Kentucky Thursday afternoon and evening. A strong weather system is forecast to push through the region. We expect to see a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The first round is expected to move through the region Thursday morning after sunrise. In this round, heavy rainfall is the main threat. Some localized flooding could occur in some areas.
The second round of thunderstorms is expected to develop Thursday afternoon and continue into the evening hours. This second round is expected to be the stronger round of thunderstorms. Damaging winds and isolated to scattered tornadoes will be possible across the area. Based on the latest data, we feel the highest risk of severe weather will be between 300-1100 PM EDT.
We would like to stress that there is some uncertainty on how unstable the atmosphere may become Thursday afternoon in between these rounds of storms. If instability remains low, general thunderstorms will be possible. On the other hand, if stronger instability develops, then severe thunderstorms will become more likely. The forecast will continue to be refined over the next 24 hours.